Heightened US-Iran tensions and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports have driven naval transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with US guided-missile destroyers recently entering the Gulf and facilitating commercial movements as of early October 2026. Oil flows have collapsed to roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels near 21 million barrels per day, pushing up tanker rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and implied volatility in Brent and WTI benchmarks. US Central Command operations, including precision strikes on blockade runners, underscore efforts to secure southern corridors amid Iranian IRGC attacks on vessels. Traders are pricing in continued Western naval presence through year-end, with potential catalysts including further FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment shifts, any diplomatic breakthroughs, or escalation tied to energy export disruptions that could widen basis spreads in global crude markets.