Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 6.3%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,280 ปริมาณ
$21,280 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 6.3%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,280 ปริมาณ
$21,280 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,291 ปริมาณ
91%
OpenAI
$3,089 ปริมาณ
6%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$657 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$553 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$499 ปริมาณ
<1%
$546 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$484 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meta
$398 ปริมาณ
<1%
Alibaba
$355 ปริมาณ
<1%
Moonshot
$310 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$395 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$507 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$410 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$363 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$454 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$364 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$297 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$334 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$426 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,280วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,280วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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