Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 75.5% market-implied probability it holds the strongest large language model by end of October. The model leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra, with clear edges on coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning benchmarks. Earlier 2026 launches like Claude Opus 5 further reinforced Anthropic’s positioning through consistent gains on SWE-bench, OSWorld, and Frontier-Bench evaluations at competitive pricing. Traders appear to view limited near-term catalysts from competitors—despite Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—as unlikely to close the gap before October, though model timelines can shift and new capability demonstrations remain possible.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.3%
Google 9.4%
Meta 2.5%
$148,995 ปริมาณ
$148,995 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
12%
9%
Meta
3%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.3%
Google 9.4%
Meta 2.5%
$148,995 ปริมาณ
$148,995 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$29,332 ปริมาณ
77%
OpenAI
$12,927 ปริมาณ
12%
$10,641 ปริมาณ
9%
Meta
$12,825 ปริมาณ
3%
Z.ai
$12,402 ปริมาณ
1%
SpaceXAI
$8,442 ปริมาณ
1%
Alibaba
$8,010 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$8,748 ปริมาณ
1%
Moonshot
$10,007 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$7,102 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$6,672 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$6,673 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$925 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$949 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$540 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 75.5% market-implied probability it holds the strongest large language model by end of October. The model leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra, with clear edges on coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning benchmarks. Earlier 2026 launches like Claude Opus 5 further reinforced Anthropic’s positioning through consistent gains on SWE-bench, OSWorld, and Frontier-Bench evaluations at competitive pricing. Traders appear to view limited near-term catalysts from competitors—despite Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—as unlikely to close the gap before October, though model timelines can shift and new capability demonstrations remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$148,995วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 75.5% market-implied probability it holds the strongest large language model by end of October. The model leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra, with clear edges on coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning benchmarks. Earlier 2026 launches like Claude Opus 5 further reinforced Anthropic’s positioning through consistent gains on SWE-bench, OSWorld, and Frontier-Bench evaluations at competitive pricing. Traders appear to view limited near-term catalysts from competitors—despite Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—as unlikely to close the gap before October, though model timelines can shift and new capability demonstrations remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$148,995วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 75.5% market-implied probability it holds the strongest large language model by end of October. The model leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra, with clear edges on coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning benchmarks. Earlier 2026 launches like Claude Opus 5 further reinforced Anthropic’s positioning through consistent gains on SWE-bench, OSWorld, and Frontier-Bench evaluations at competitive pricing. Traders appear to view limited near-term catalysts from competitors—despite Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—as unlikely to close the gap before October, though model timelines can shift and new capability demonstrations remain possible.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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