Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent official releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities, particularly style control features that outpace rivals. OpenAI’s 13.7% odds trail amid competitive positioning from multiple labs, while Google, Meta, and others register single-digit or lower market-implied odds due to slower demonstrated progress on relevant metrics. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model updates and third-party evaluations before the resolution date, with traders monitoring capability demonstrations that could alter the current sentiment backed by real capital.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 74%
OpenAI 13.3%
Google 6.8%
Meta 6.4%
$20,810 ปริมาณ
$20,810 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
74%
OpenAI
13%
8%
Meta
6%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 74%
OpenAI 13.3%
Google 6.8%
Meta 6.4%
$20,810 ปริมาณ
$20,810 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$12,735 ปริมาณ
74%
OpenAI
$570 ปริมาณ
13%
$539 ปริมาณ
8%
Meta
$468 ปริมาณ
6%
Moonshot
$438 ปริมาณ
1%
Z.ai
$446 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$246 ปริมาณ
1%
Alibaba
$406 ปริมาณ
1%
ByteDance
$382 ปริมาณ
1%
MiniMax
$409 ปริมาณ
1%
Thinky
$375 ปริมาณ
1%
Meituan
$366 ปริมาณ
1%
Nvidia
$371 ปริมาณ
1%
Tencent
$366 ปริมาณ
1%
Microsoft
$364 ปริมาณ
1%
StepFun
$367 ปริมาณ
<1%
SpaceXAI
$328 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$371 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$502 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$388 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$372 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent official releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities, particularly style control features that outpace rivals. OpenAI’s 13.7% odds trail amid competitive positioning from multiple labs, while Google, Meta, and others register single-digit or lower market-implied odds due to slower demonstrated progress on relevant metrics. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model updates and third-party evaluations before the resolution date, with traders monitoring capability demonstrations that could alter the current sentiment backed by real capital.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,810วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent official releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities, particularly style control features that outpace rivals. OpenAI’s 13.7% odds trail amid competitive positioning from multiple labs, while Google, Meta, and others register single-digit or lower market-implied odds due to slower demonstrated progress on relevant metrics. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model updates and third-party evaluations before the resolution date, with traders monitoring capability demonstrations that could alter the current sentiment backed by real capital.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,810วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent official releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities, particularly style control features that outpace rivals. OpenAI’s 13.7% odds trail amid competitive positioning from multiple labs, while Google, Meta, and others register single-digit or lower market-implied odds due to slower demonstrated progress on relevant metrics. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model updates and third-party evaluations before the resolution date, with traders monitoring capability demonstrations that could alter the current sentiment backed by real capital.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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