Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 1.9%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
$23,441 ปริมาณ
$23,441 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
3%
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Bytedance
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 1.9%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
$23,441 ปริมาณ
$23,441 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,999 ปริมาณ
95%
OpenAI
$2,838 ปริมาณ
3%
$2,046 ปริมาณ
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,224 ปริมาณ
2%
Bytedance
$608 ปริมาณ
1%
StepFun
$721 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$718 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$690 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$908 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$891 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meta
$1,067 ปริมาณ
<1%
Alibaba
$1,069 ปริมาณ
<1%
Moonshot
$802 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$459 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$330 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$939 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$330 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$774 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$344 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$505 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,441วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,441วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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