**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners** to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, as recent polling consistently places them well ahead of the field while no candidate approaches a first-round majority. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August to early September show Lula at 37–38% and Flávio at 29–33%, with author Augusto Cury rising sharply to 8–10% amid voter fatigue with the dominant polarization. Other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema poll in the low single digits. Runoff simulations between the top two are statistically tied or show a narrow Lula edge, reflecting high rejection rates for both. The start of free TV and radio broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing debates provide the main near-term catalysts before the October 25 runoff if required.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$581,537 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Renan Santos
2%
Jair Bolsonaro
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$581,537 ปริมาณ
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$251,938 ปริมาณ
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$100,265 ปริมาณ
97%
Renan Santos
$24,924 ปริมาณ
2%
Jair Bolsonaro
$16,070 ปริมาณ
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$826 ปริมาณ
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,371 ปริมาณ
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$84,135 ปริมาณ
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$36,264 ปริมาณ
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,745 ปริมาณ
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners** to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, as recent polling consistently places them well ahead of the field while no candidate approaches a first-round majority. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August to early September show Lula at 37–38% and Flávio at 29–33%, with author Augusto Cury rising sharply to 8–10% amid voter fatigue with the dominant polarization. Other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema poll in the low single digits. Runoff simulations between the top two are statistically tied or show a narrow Lula edge, reflecting high rejection rates for both. The start of free TV and radio broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing debates provide the main near-term catalysts before the October 25 runoff if required.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$581,537วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners** to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, as recent polling consistently places them well ahead of the field while no candidate approaches a first-round majority. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August to early September show Lula at 37–38% and Flávio at 29–33%, with author Augusto Cury rising sharply to 8–10% amid voter fatigue with the dominant polarization. Other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema poll in the low single digits. Runoff simulations between the top two are statistically tied or show a narrow Lula edge, reflecting high rejection rates for both. The start of free TV and radio broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing debates provide the main near-term catalysts before the October 25 runoff if required.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$581,537วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners** to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, as recent polling consistently places them well ahead of the field while no candidate approaches a first-round majority. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August to early September show Lula at 37–38% and Flávio at 29–33%, with author Augusto Cury rising sharply to 8–10% amid voter fatigue with the dominant polarization. Other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema poll in the low single digits. Runoff simulations between the top two are statistically tied or show a narrow Lula edge, reflecting high rejection rates for both. The start of free TV and radio broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing debates provide the main near-term catalysts before the October 25 runoff if required.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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