Incumbent Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability of Democratic victory in VA-04, a solidly Democratic district with Cook PVI D+17, driven by her uncontested August 4 primary, landslide prior wins (67% in 2024 general, 74% in 2023 special), and superior fundraising ($891,000 raised, $128,000 cash on hand as of late March). Top forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic amid minimal Republican opposition pre-primary and negligible independent Jason Brown's resources. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics post-April redistricting approval, which preserves the seat's status. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong GOP nominee post-primary, McClellan scandal, or national Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVA-04 House Election Winner
VA-04 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,252 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$1,607 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability of Democratic victory in VA-04, a solidly Democratic district with Cook PVI D+17, driven by her uncontested August 4 primary, landslide prior wins (67% in 2024 general, 74% in 2023 special), and superior fundraising ($891,000 raised, $128,000 cash on hand as of late March). Top forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic amid minimal Republican opposition pre-primary and negligible independent Jason Brown's resources. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics post-April redistricting approval, which preserves the seat's status. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong GOP nominee post-primary, McClellan scandal, or national Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,858วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability of Democratic victory in VA-04, a solidly Democratic district with Cook PVI D+17, driven by her uncontested August 4 primary, landslide prior wins (67% in 2024 general, 74% in 2023 special), and superior fundraising ($891,000 raised, $128,000 cash on hand as of late March). Top forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic amid minimal Republican opposition pre-primary and negligible independent Jason Brown's resources. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics post-April redistricting approval, which preserves the seat's status. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong GOP nominee post-primary, McClellan scandal, or national Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,858วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability of Democratic victory in VA-04, a solidly Democratic district with Cook PVI D+17, driven by her uncontested August 4 primary, landslide prior wins (67% in 2024 general, 74% in 2023 special), and superior fundraising ($891,000 raised, $128,000 cash on hand as of late March). Top forecasters rate it Solid/Safe Democratic amid minimal Republican opposition pre-primary and negligible independent Jason Brown's resources. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics post-April redistricting approval, which preserves the seat's status. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong GOP nominee post-primary, McClellan scandal, or national Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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