Persistent US-China strategic rivalry and explicit leadership priorities explain the 93.5% market-implied odds against an agreement to pace the AI frontier in 2026. Recent Trump-Xi summits produced an AI incident hotline and bilateral dialogue on risks and benefits, yet both sides rejected calls to slow frontier large language model development, with Washington emphasizing voluntary industry oversight and Beijing advancing its speed-first safety regime alongside rapid capability gains. Export controls, mutual distrust, and competitive incentives continue to favor acceleration over coordinated restraint. The November APEC talks could still surface limited guardrails if a major incident shifts incentives, though structural barriers make such an outcome unlikely before year-end.