Recent nowcasts from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model at 3.6% and other trackers around 3.2% have driven the 67.5% market-implied probability for U.S. Q3 2026 real GDP growth at or above 3.0% annualized. Resilient consumer spending, surging business fixed investment tied to AI infrastructure, and inventory accumulation have fueled the acceleration from Q2’s 2.2% pace, outweighing a net exports drag from strong imports. These factors, reflected in elevated PMI readings and nowcast revisions through early October, underpin trader consensus ahead of the BEA’s advance estimate on October 29, though final data could still shift on trade or inventory revisions.