Russia’s continued insistence on territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions, which Ukraine has repeatedly rejected, combined with Moscow’s refusal to accept anything short of a comprehensive settlement aligned with its maximalist goals, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against a signed peace deal by October 31. Recent U.S.-mediated efforts, including Miami talks and proposals for an energy ceasefire, produced no breakthrough, as Russian officials cited ongoing hostilities and blamed Ukrainian actions while sustaining frontline operations. The compressed timeline leaves little room for the alignment of positions required for formal agreement. A sudden reversal would require verifiable diplomatic concessions or a major battlefield shift within the remaining weeks, neither of which current reporting indicates is imminent.