Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, revised higher from the initial 0.4% print and following 0.6% growth in Q1, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 0.4–0.5% range that currently commands a 42% market-implied probability. Monthly indicators reinforce this view, with July’s 0.4% month-on-month gain offset by a flat August nowcast amid softer production and construction readings. Upward revisions to 2026 GDP forecasts, including the IMF’s lift to 1.3%, reflect AI-related investment and services strength, yet elevated energy prices, tighter financial conditions, and pre-Budget uncertainty introduce downside risks that support the 22.5% probability attached to 0.2–0.3% growth. The first official Q3 estimate, due November 12, will resolve the contract.