The tight timeline and early-stage planning drive the 89.5% market-implied probability for "No." An executive order signed August 28, 2026, established a NASA-led Presidential Commission with a 120-day mandate to recommend governance, curricula, location, and legislation; its first meeting occurred September 9, followed by a Request for Information to states due October 26. Official roadmaps target groundbreaking no later than 2027, temporary housing of the first 300 students in 2028, and a permanent campus by 2031. Actual academic instruction requires congressional authorization, funding, site selection, facility development or interim setups, faculty recruitment for rigorous aerospace and leadership programs, and student enrollment—steps that historical federal academy precedents show exceed the June 30, 2027, resolution window. The commission report due around late December offers the next key data point for traders assessing progress.