Mayes Middleton holds a strong lead in trader pricing for the November 3, 2026 Texas attorney general election as the Republican nominee in a state with a long record of GOP statewide victories. Middleton secured the nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May runoff, bolstered by substantial self-funding that aided name recognition across an open seat vacated by Ken Paxton. Nathan Johnson, the Democratic nominee who won his primary runoff, trails amid polling averages showing Middleton ahead by roughly three points in September surveys of likely voters, with significant undecided shares. The race has drawn attention for its relative closeness compared to historical Texas margins, driven by Johnson's focus on a non-politicized office and Middleton's alignment with conservative priorities on issues like border security. Libertarian Tom Oxford and any other outcomes remain long shots in the market.