South Korea’s consumer price index rose 2.9% year-over-year in September 2026, easing from August’s 3.1% but remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target amid elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and pass-through from semiconductor-driven durable goods prices. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) moderated to 2.8% from 3.4%, while the BOK noted broadening underlying pressures and projected October readings near 3%. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 CPI range from the Finance Ministry’s 2.6% (with noted upside risks from oil) to the BOK’s 2.7% and the OECD’s upgraded 3.0%, reflecting robust export-led growth, recent policy rate hikes to 3.00%, and demand-side support. With three months remaining, the closely matched market-implied odds between 3.0%+ and 2.7–2.9% hinge on whether energy and services inflation sustain the recent uptrend or moderate further.