South Africa’s annual inflation rate for 2026 has seen its market-implied probability for exceeding 5.0% rise to the lead position amid persistent energy price pressures. Headline CPI rebounded to 4.4% in August from 4.3% in July, driven mainly by transport costs that climbed 8.8% year-over-year, while core inflation eased modestly to 4.1%. The South African Reserve Bank’s October Monetary Policy Review projects the annual average at 4.4% but flags a likely peak above 5% later in 2026 or early 2027 due to elevated Brent crude assumptions near $90–95 per barrel and pass-through effects. Traders appear to price in these near-term upside risks from the oil shock, tempered by subdued food inflation near 1.1% and the SARB’s cumulative 50 basis point rate hikes to 7.25%. The September CPI release due October 21 and ongoing MPC communications remain key near-term catalysts.