Morena holds a polling lead for Sonora’s 2027 state congressional elections, reflecting its organizational strength and recent internal selection of Lorenia Valles as state coordinator. However, the opposition remains divided among PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano, with combined support often approaching or exceeding Morena’s share in surveys. This fragmentation, alongside uncertainty over whether Morena and allies will retain a legislative majority, sustains tight implied probabilities across multiple parties. Traders appear focused on coalition dynamics, turnout patterns, and any late shifts in voter preference that could alter seat outcomes in the June contest.