Delegado Alessandro maintains a commanding 99.8% implied probability for second place in Sergipe's Senate contest, reflecting trader consensus on vote tallies from the October 4 election. Official counts positioned him behind Rogério Carvalho with roughly 17% of valid votes, ahead of Delegado André David and André Moura by narrow margins in a race for the state's two seats. Recent pre-election surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Quaest had shown a fragmented field with technical ties among multiple candidates, underscoring how final ballot consolidation favored Alessandro's positioning. With nearly all sections tallied, shifts would require formal recounts, judicial rulings on challenged votes, or certification adjustments by electoral authorities to alter the outcome before market resolution.