Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for second-best AI lab by end of October, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 45-50% for the top contenders. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads several benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge work, yet OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities and efficiency gains while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants target software engineering and multimodal tasks. Meta’s rapid Muse Spark 1.3 iteration claims competitive parity in agentic automation and cost efficiency. Trader sentiment reflects benchmark volatility, adoption metrics, and near-term catalysts including Anthropic’s targeted late-September IPO window, which could shift perceptions of stability and resources among the leading U.S. labs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGoogle 45%
Anthropic 25%
Meta 17%
OpenAI 11.6%
$17,447 ปริมาณ
$17,447 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
45%
Anthropic
25%
Meta
23%
OpenAI
12%
Alibaba
4%
Z.ai
2%
Thinky
2%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Google 45%
Anthropic 25%
Meta 17%
OpenAI 11.6%
$17,447 ปริมาณ
$17,447 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
$6,966 ปริมาณ
45%
Anthropic
$1,735 ปริมาณ
25%
Meta
$968 ปริมาณ
23%
OpenAI
$521 ปริมาณ
12%
Alibaba
$767 ปริมาณ
4%
Z.ai
$478 ปริมาณ
2%
Thinky
$700 ปริมาณ
2%
Moonshot
$377 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$551 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$463 ปริมาณ
1%
SpaceXAI
$311 ปริมาณ
1%
ByteDance
$372 ปริมาณ
1%
Microsoft
$466 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$380 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$333 ปริมาณ
1%
Meituan
$295 ปริมาณ
1%
Tencent
$345 ปริมาณ
1%
MiniMax
$472 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$304 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$304 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$341 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for second-best AI lab by end of October, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 45-50% for the top contenders. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads several benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge work, yet OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities and efficiency gains while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants target software engineering and multimodal tasks. Meta’s rapid Muse Spark 1.3 iteration claims competitive parity in agentic automation and cost efficiency. Trader sentiment reflects benchmark volatility, adoption metrics, and near-term catalysts including Anthropic’s targeted late-September IPO window, which could shift perceptions of stability and resources among the leading U.S. labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,447วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for second-best AI lab by end of October, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 45-50% for the top contenders. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads several benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge work, yet OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities and efficiency gains while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants target software engineering and multimodal tasks. Meta’s rapid Muse Spark 1.3 iteration claims competitive parity in agentic automation and cost efficiency. Trader sentiment reflects benchmark volatility, adoption metrics, and near-term catalysts including Anthropic’s targeted late-September IPO window, which could shift perceptions of stability and resources among the leading U.S. labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,447วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for second-best AI lab by end of October, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 45-50% for the top contenders. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads several benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge work, yet OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasizes cybersecurity capabilities and efficiency gains while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants target software engineering and multimodal tasks. Meta’s rapid Muse Spark 1.3 iteration claims competitive parity in agentic automation and cost efficiency. Trader sentiment reflects benchmark volatility, adoption metrics, and near-term catalysts including Anthropic’s targeted late-September IPO window, which could shift perceptions of stability and resources among the leading U.S. labs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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