Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the nationwide State Duma ballot ahead of the September 18–20 elections, following a suit by the Rodina party and amid ongoing administrative disqualifications of candidates. This exclusion directly prevents the liberal party from competing in the proportional representation system, where the 5 percent threshold applies for seat allocation. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold in national elections since 1999 and faced similar barriers in prior cycles due to signature requirements, regional rejections, and legal pressures. Independent surveys had indicated potential support above 5 percent in some models if the party remained eligible, yet the confirmed removal anchors trader consensus near certainty on a negative outcome. Late court reversals or procedural inclusions before voting closes represent the narrowest pathways that could still shift resolution, though institutional timelines and precedent make such changes improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$692,667 ปริมาณ
$692,667 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$692,667 ปริมาณ
$692,667 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the nationwide State Duma ballot ahead of the September 18–20 elections, following a suit by the Rodina party and amid ongoing administrative disqualifications of candidates. This exclusion directly prevents the liberal party from competing in the proportional representation system, where the 5 percent threshold applies for seat allocation. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold in national elections since 1999 and faced similar barriers in prior cycles due to signature requirements, regional rejections, and legal pressures. Independent surveys had indicated potential support above 5 percent in some models if the party remained eligible, yet the confirmed removal anchors trader consensus near certainty on a negative outcome. Late court reversals or procedural inclusions before voting closes represent the narrowest pathways that could still shift resolution, though institutional timelines and precedent make such changes improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$692,667วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the nationwide State Duma ballot ahead of the September 18–20 elections, following a suit by the Rodina party and amid ongoing administrative disqualifications of candidates. This exclusion directly prevents the liberal party from competing in the proportional representation system, where the 5 percent threshold applies for seat allocation. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold in national elections since 1999 and faced similar barriers in prior cycles due to signature requirements, regional rejections, and legal pressures. Independent surveys had indicated potential support above 5 percent in some models if the party remained eligible, yet the confirmed removal anchors trader consensus near certainty on a negative outcome. Late court reversals or procedural inclusions before voting closes represent the narrowest pathways that could still shift resolution, though institutional timelines and precedent make such changes improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$692,667วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the nationwide State Duma ballot ahead of the September 18–20 elections, following a suit by the Rodina party and amid ongoing administrative disqualifications of candidates. This exclusion directly prevents the liberal party from competing in the proportional representation system, where the 5 percent threshold applies for seat allocation. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold in national elections since 1999 and faced similar barriers in prior cycles due to signature requirements, regional rejections, and legal pressures. Independent surveys had indicated potential support above 5 percent in some models if the party remained eligible, yet the confirmed removal anchors trader consensus near certainty on a negative outcome. Late court reversals or procedural inclusions before voting closes represent the narrowest pathways that could still shift resolution, though institutional timelines and precedent make such changes improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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