Rising inflation pressures, with August CPI at 4.82% above the RBI's 4% target for the third straight month amid elevated food, fuel, and crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, form the core driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.50% at the October 7 decision. Traders view resilient GDP growth and a global shift toward tighter policy as reinforcing the case for the RBI's first increase in nearly four years, consistent with economist polls showing roughly 60% favoring this outcome. A 50-basis-point or larger move carries lower 14.2% odds given the measured consensus, while no-change pricing at 10.8% reflects limited support amid broadening price risks. The MPC's ongoing deliberations through October 7 will incorporate latest data on second-round effects and rupee stability.