The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at a record-low 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations amid resilient first-half growth and subdued inflation near 1%. Second-quarter GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in three years, reflecting weak domestic demand rather than liquidity shortages, while the government's 4.5–5% annual growth target remains on track. Analysts have repeatedly deferred forecasts for benchmark easing into later quarters or 2027, citing limited credit appetite and a preference for targeted structural tools over broad rate adjustments. With the next loan prime rate fixing scheduled for mid-to-late September, traders assign the highest implied probability to no change by the resolution date, viewing a cut as possible but not imminent and an increase as remote given the current macro backdrop.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วPeople's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change 68%
Decrease 29%
Increase <1%
$28,999 ปริมาณ
$28,999 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Increase
<1%
No Change
68%
Decrease
29%
No Change 68%
Decrease 29%
Increase <1%
$28,999 ปริมาณ
$28,999 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Increase
$2,237 ปริมาณ
<1%
No Change
$12,672 ปริมาณ
68%
Decrease
$14,090 ปริมาณ
29%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at a record-low 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations amid resilient first-half growth and subdued inflation near 1%. Second-quarter GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in three years, reflecting weak domestic demand rather than liquidity shortages, while the government's 4.5–5% annual growth target remains on track. Analysts have repeatedly deferred forecasts for benchmark easing into later quarters or 2027, citing limited credit appetite and a preference for targeted structural tools over broad rate adjustments. With the next loan prime rate fixing scheduled for mid-to-late September, traders assign the highest implied probability to no change by the resolution date, viewing a cut as possible but not imminent and an increase as remote given the current macro backdrop.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,999วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at a record-low 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations amid resilient first-half growth and subdued inflation near 1%. Second-quarter GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in three years, reflecting weak domestic demand rather than liquidity shortages, while the government's 4.5–5% annual growth target remains on track. Analysts have repeatedly deferred forecasts for benchmark easing into later quarters or 2027, citing limited credit appetite and a preference for targeted structural tools over broad rate adjustments. With the next loan prime rate fixing scheduled for mid-to-late September, traders assign the highest implied probability to no change by the resolution date, viewing a cut as possible but not imminent and an increase as remote given the current macro backdrop.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,999วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at a record-low 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations amid resilient first-half growth and subdued inflation near 1%. Second-quarter GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in three years, reflecting weak domestic demand rather than liquidity shortages, while the government's 4.5–5% annual growth target remains on track. Analysts have repeatedly deferred forecasts for benchmark easing into later quarters or 2027, citing limited credit appetite and a preference for targeted structural tools over broad rate adjustments. With the next loan prime rate fixing scheduled for mid-to-late September, traders assign the highest implied probability to no change by the resolution date, viewing a cut as possible but not imminent and an increase as remote given the current macro backdrop.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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