Incumbent Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 15th Congressional District, reflecting strong trader consensus on his incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and broad endorsements. Recent polling from May showed Torres capturing around 60 percent support against challengers including former Assembly Member Michael Blake, whose campaign has emphasized differences on foreign policy and progressive priorities. Other entrants such as public defender Dalourny Nemorin and Assembly Member Amanda Septimo remain marginal in visibility and resources. With the primary only days away, the frontrunner’s established base in the Bronx district and lack of major recent disruptions limit realistic paths for an upset, though unusually low turnout or unforeseen late developments could still influence final vote shares.