Google's repeated delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June 2026 after I/O teasing and slipped into July for further tuning on long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks—continue to shape trader views, with the model still limited to partner testing and no public API rollout as of early September. Instead, Google has accelerated lighter Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including 3.8 Flash and a cybersecurity edition in early September, aligning with its stated monthly cadence for cost-efficient, production-focused releases while frontier training shifts toward Gemini 4. This pattern of prioritizing iterative Flash improvements over the higher-capability Pro version, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier drops, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo release by September 30 73%
September 23 5.5%
September 30 5.1%
September 24 3.0%
$68,040 ปริมาณ
$68,040 ปริมาณ
September 7
3%
September 8
1%
September 9
<1%
September 10
<1%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
6%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
3%
September 29
3%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
73%
No release by September 30 73%
September 23 5.5%
September 30 5.1%
September 24 3.0%
$68,040 ปริมาณ
$68,040 ปริมาณ
September 7
3%
September 8
1%
September 9
<1%
September 10
<1%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
6%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
3%
September 29
3%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
73%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June 2026 after I/O teasing and slipped into July for further tuning on long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks—continue to shape trader views, with the model still limited to partner testing and no public API rollout as of early September. Instead, Google has accelerated lighter Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including 3.8 Flash and a cybersecurity edition in early September, aligning with its stated monthly cadence for cost-efficient, production-focused releases while frontier training shifts toward Gemini 4. This pattern of prioritizing iterative Flash improvements over the higher-capability Pro version, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier drops, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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