Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus tilts modestly bearish for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with <$23,500 leading at 48.5% implied probability amid a closely contested field where $26,500-$28,500 (42.5%) and nearby bins hover within 6 points. This positioning stems from the index's recent surge to 26,672—up 6.8% last week on record highs fueled by strong Q1 big tech earnings and AI capex momentum—but tempered by stretched valuations exceeding 35x forward earnings and persistent inflation pressures delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Key differentiators include upcoming May FOMC guidance, Q2 earnings from Nvidia and hyperscalers, and Treasury yields above 4.5%; softer labor data could lift mid-range bins, while reacceleration favors the downside leader.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$23,500-$25,000 77%
$33,000-$36,000 45%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
$26,500-$28,500 41%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
52%
$23,500-$25,000
77%
$25,000-$26,500
41%
$26,500-$28,500
41%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
41%
$33,000-$36,000
45%
>$36,000
26%
$23,500-$25,000 77%
$33,000-$36,000 45%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
$26,500-$28,500 41%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
$0 ปริมาณ
52%
$23,500-$25,000
$10 ปริมาณ
77%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 ปริมาณ
41%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 ปริมาณ
41%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 ปริมาณ
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 ปริมาณ
41%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 ปริมาณ
45%
>$36,000
$42 ปริมาณ
26%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus tilts modestly bearish for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with <$23,500 leading at 48.5% implied probability amid a closely contested field where $26,500-$28,500 (42.5%) and nearby bins hover within 6 points. This positioning stems from the index's recent surge to 26,672—up 6.8% last week on record highs fueled by strong Q1 big tech earnings and AI capex momentum—but tempered by stretched valuations exceeding 35x forward earnings and persistent inflation pressures delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Key differentiators include upcoming May FOMC guidance, Q2 earnings from Nvidia and hyperscalers, and Treasury yields above 4.5%; softer labor data could lift mid-range bins, while reacceleration favors the downside leader.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus tilts modestly bearish for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with <$23,500 leading at 48.5% implied probability amid a closely contested field where $26,500-$28,500 (42.5%) and nearby bins hover within 6 points. This positioning stems from the index's recent surge to 26,672—up 6.8% last week on record highs fueled by strong Q1 big tech earnings and AI capex momentum—but tempered by stretched valuations exceeding 35x forward earnings and persistent inflation pressures delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Key differentiators include upcoming May FOMC guidance, Q2 earnings from Nvidia and hyperscalers, and Treasury yields above 4.5%; softer labor data could lift mid-range bins, while reacceleration favors the downside leader.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus tilts modestly bearish for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with <$23,500 leading at 48.5% implied probability amid a closely contested field where $26,500-$28,500 (42.5%) and nearby bins hover within 6 points. This positioning stems from the index's recent surge to 26,672—up 6.8% last week on record highs fueled by strong Q1 big tech earnings and AI capex momentum—but tempered by stretched valuations exceeding 35x forward earnings and persistent inflation pressures delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Key differentiators include upcoming May FOMC guidance, Q2 earnings from Nvidia and hyperscalers, and Treasury yields above 4.5%; softer labor data could lift mid-range bins, while reacceleration favors the downside leader.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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