Morena maintains a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Nayarit state congress outcome, reflecting its established coalition strength with PT and PVEM amid ongoing state-level organizing. The race remains closely contested as PAN holds meaningful support and multiple smaller parties compete for seats in a fragmented field. Recent coalition adjustments, including internal surveys and parity decisions for the broader 2027 cycle, have not produced decisive separation. Upcoming legislative sessions and any shifts in local polling or alliance talks could alter positioning before resolution.