The open seat in Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, vacated by Republican John James to run for governor, has produced a toss-up general election between Democrat Christina Hines, a former special victims prosecutor and Macomb County resident, and Republican Mike Bouchard, a Trump-endorsed Army veteran. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Republican, citing the district’s recent Republican tilt and Trump’s 2024 performance there, while limited polling shows a close contest or slight Republican edge. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing appears driven by assessments of candidate profiles, Democratic ground-game efforts in suburban Macomb and Oakland counties, and broader national conditions, with the November 3 general election still weeks away.