Recent September inflation data showing a modest uptick to 3.45% year-over-year, driven by food and energy components while core measures eased to 3.75%, has reinforced trader consensus around the 3.50%–3.99% range for Mexico’s 2026 annual inflation. Private-sector surveys and forecasts from Banxico and the IMF cluster near 3.8%–3.9% for year-end 2026, reflecting gradual disinflation amid a 6.50% policy rate hold and expectations of convergence to the 3% target only in 2027. Upside risks from agricultural volatility and geopolitical factors support the leading implied probability, while stable growth projections near 1.4% and contained core trends limit shifts toward higher buckets.