Traders assign a 98.3% probability that Luigi Mangione remains in custody through 2026 because his federal guilty plea to stalking charges tied to the 2024 UnitedHealthcare CEO killing sets up a December sentencing where prosecutors are seeking life imprisonment, while the parallel New York state second-degree murder case continues after a double-jeopardy motion delayed trial. Held without bail since his December 2024 arrest, Mangione faces extended pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center amid hearings scheduled into late autumn. The overlapping prosecutions, serious charges, and typical timelines for such cases create overwhelming consensus that release before 2027 is improbable. A realistic upset would require an unexpected double-jeopardy dismissal plus a dramatically lenient federal sentence, though both remain unlikely given the case details and judicial patterns.