**No holds a 63% market-implied probability in the "Love Wins: 2026 Edition" market because two of the three required milestones remain uncertain with limited time left before the December 31, 2026 resolution.** Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s July 3 wedding at Madison Square Garden has already cleared one condition, removing a major early risk and contributing to whatever Yes support exists. However, Tom Holland and Zendaya have not held an official ceremony despite earlier speculation and a private reception; their stylist publicly walked back prior claims in September, noting plans are now tied to the post-Dune press tour window. Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner, dating since 2023, continue to emphasize they are not rushing an engagement, with recent industry reporting highlighting their preference to keep the relationship at its current pace. Traders price the combined probability of the remaining two events occurring before year-end as low, reflecting the couple-specific timelines, privacy preferences, and absence of confirmed movement on the engagement front. Key near-term catalysts include any late-2026 announcements around the Spider-Man or Dune promotional cycles.