Jack Doherty’s September 2026 misdemeanor domestic battery arrest in Fort Lauderdale, stemming from a reported physical dispute with no injuries, underpins the market’s 92.4% implied probability of no prison time. Florida misdemeanor battery typically carries fines, probation, or brief jail at most rather than state prison, especially with the influencer released on bond and pleading not guilty. Prior 2025 drug and resisting-arrest charges were resolved via diversion without incarceration, further reinforcing trader expectations. An upset would require charge upgrades to felonies, conviction on multiple counts, or sentencing enhancements tied to priors or new evidence, none of which appear imminent based on current filings.