Ongoing disagreements over sequencing in the US-brokered June 2026 framework agreement—specifically whether Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon pilot zones must precede verified Hezbollah disarmament or vice versa—continue to stall implementation and sustain low-level conflict. Israeli forces maintain positions south of the Blue Line, conduct infrastructure-clearing operations, and have signaled extended presence, while Hezbollah insists on full withdrawal before further steps. The next round of US-mediated military talks is scheduled for October 20 in Tampa, days before Israel's general elections, though prior rounds in Rome and Washington produced limited advances. These dynamics, alongside Lebanese army deployments in limited zones, shape trader assessments of when a verifiable two-week pause in hostilities could take hold.