Recent polls place Shas near seven seats, with the market's near-even split between 6-7 and 8-9 reflecting typical margins of error for smaller parties and variable ultra-Orthodox turnout. Shas has held steady in that range across multiple surveys through early October 2026 despite the party's 2022 result of 11 seats, as internal slate adjustments—including the addition of an IDF reservist—and debates over Haredi enlistment create modest uncertainty in its Sephardic voter base. The broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc's fluctuations and competition within the religious-right camp further compress probabilities around the current consensus, with separation likely hinging on final campaign mobilization or shifts in coalition partner performance before the election.