Recent polls show Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael, a new right-wing party launched in late August 2026, consistently polling near or below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold equivalent to roughly four Knesset seats. Channel 12 and other October surveys place it at about 1.5 percent, with averages across recent fieldwork around 2.8–3.4 seats. Competition from established right-wing lists, including the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance and Likud, along with limited momentum for the party’s platform on Gaza policy and October 7 accountability, has contributed to the downward trend. With the October 27 election three weeks away, traders assign the highest probability to fewer than four seats, reflecting the party’s current polling trajectory while leaving room for last-minute shifts in voter turnout or alliances.