UK parliamentary by-elections occur when MPs resign, die, face recall petitions, or vacate seats due to ineligibility or moves to other legislatures. In 2026, six contests have been confirmed or held: Gorton and Denton (February), Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (June), Clacton (August), and Holborn and St Pancras (October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation). These vacancies stemmed from health issues, strategic party maneuvers, Scottish Parliament elections, financial scrutiny, and leadership transitions. Trader consensus around six outcomes reflects the absence of additional announced resignations or recalls through mid-September, combined with the low historical base rate of by-elections outside general election years and limited remaining calendar time before typical session-end procedures. Any further vacancies before year-end would require new developments such as additional MP departures or successful recall petitions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว6 62%
7 21%
8 5.0%
10+ 2.8%
$31,151 ปริมาณ
$31,151 ปริมาณ
≤5
1%
6
62%
7
21%
8
5%
9
1%
10+
3%
6 62%
7 21%
8 5.0%
10+ 2.8%
$31,151 ปริมาณ
$31,151 ปริมาณ
≤5
1%
6
62%
7
21%
8
5%
9
1%
10+
3%
Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 8, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...UK parliamentary by-elections occur when MPs resign, die, face recall petitions, or vacate seats due to ineligibility or moves to other legislatures. In 2026, six contests have been confirmed or held: Gorton and Denton (February), Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (June), Clacton (August), and Holborn and St Pancras (October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation). These vacancies stemmed from health issues, strategic party maneuvers, Scottish Parliament elections, financial scrutiny, and leadership transitions. Trader consensus around six outcomes reflects the absence of additional announced resignations or recalls through mid-September, combined with the low historical base rate of by-elections outside general election years and limited remaining calendar time before typical session-end procedures. Any further vacancies before year-end would require new developments such as additional MP departures or successful recall petitions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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