Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
200-219 100.0%
<180 <1%
180-199 <1%
220+ <1%
$16,038 ปริมาณ
$16,038 ปริมาณ
Aug 16, 2026
<180
No
180-199
No
200-219
Yes
220+
No
200-219 100.0%
<180 <1%
180-199 <1%
220+ <1%
$16,038 ปริมาณ
$16,038 ปริมาณ
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$7,062 ปริมาณ
No
180-199
$2,534 ปริมาณ
No
200-219
$2,064 ปริมาณ
Yes
220+
$4,379 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,038วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,038วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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