Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of positions near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have heightened risks to a critical chokepoint handling substantial oil and cargo flows rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. These developments, alongside documented strikes on Saudi-linked tankers since July, have driven war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher and pushed VLCC freight rates to record levels exceeding $1 million per day on select routes. Shipping volumes through the strait have contracted markedly, prompting longer Cape of Good Hope diversions that inflate ton-mile costs and add weeks to voyages. Saudi crude export adjustments and reduced Suez Canal traffic further embed these pressures into global energy benchmarks. Ongoing Yemeni government counteroffensives, supported by Saudi air power, represent the next near-term variable that could alter attack frequency or route viability.
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