Escalating conflict around Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for roughly 12% of global trade including Saudi crude exports, is the main driver shaping trader views on the likelihood of a Houthi oil-tanker seizure. In September 2026 the Houthis captured key coastal positions and Perim Island, prompting attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, Aramco facilities, and a temporary shutdown of the East-West pipeline; Brent crude subsequently traded near $100 per barrel amid combined Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions. On October 5, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a major offensive, claiming recapture of Dhubab and other coastal areas, which could reduce Houthi launch sites but leaves drone and missile threats intact from inland positions. Elevated maritime risk premiums, tanker rerouting costs, and potential further supply shocks from ongoing strikes or pipeline issues remain the key variables influencing near-term market-implied odds.