Raphaël Glucksmann leads the social-democratic primary field by a wide margin ahead of the October 9-10 first round, reflecting his stronger polling in both primary surveys and broader 2027 presidential hypotheticals compared with Olivier Faure, Ségolène Royal, Jérôme Guedj, and Emmanuel Maurel. Over 140,000 voters have registered, and the three televised debates sharpened contrasts on alliances with La France Insoumise, foreign policy toward Ukraine and Gaza, and the left’s electoral strategy. Glucksmann’s consistent positioning against LFI partnerships and his established national profile have consolidated trader consensus around his first-round win, while the other candidates trail at low single-digit implied probabilities consistent with limited momentum and narrower bases of support.