**Olivier Faure holds a strong lead in trader expectations for second place in the October 9-10 first round of the French Socialist primary.** As PS first secretary, he benefits from established party infrastructure and member loyalty within the closed electronic vote, while broader presidential polling shows Raphaël Glucksmann ahead nationally on appeal. Recent televised debates have sharpened contrasts on alliances with La France Insoumise, purchasing power measures, and foreign policy, yet no decisive shift has altered the consensus positioning of Faure behind Glucksmann. Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj trail with narrower bases, reflecting limited momentum from their respective profiles or smaller party affiliations ahead of the vote. Around 128,000 registered participants underscore the contest's scale, with traders viewing Faure's organizational edge as the primary driver of current implied probabilities for runner-up status.