A strengthening El Niño, now carrying greater than 90% odds of becoming a very strong event through fall and winter 2026-27 according to NOAA, stands as the dominant factor shaping early-season snow prospects. This pattern favors an active southern storm track with above-normal precipitation across the southern Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and parts of the central and eastern U.S., while suppressing snowfall farther north. High-elevation sites in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and the Cascades have already recorded initial accumulations in late August and early September, ahead of typical medians. Traders monitor upcoming NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates, ECMWF and UKMO seasonal model runs, and National Weather Service temperature and precipitation outlooks for shifts that could advance or delay the first measurable snowfall at resolution stations. Historical analogs from strong El Niño winters show variable first-snow timing depending on elevation and latitude.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
56%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
50%

Boston, MA by November 15
57%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
82%

Chicago, IL by November 15
61%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
82%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
28%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
81%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
83%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
93%

Chicago, IL by November 30
79%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
20%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$7,349 ปริมาณ

Buffalo, NY by October 31
56%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
50%

Boston, MA by November 15
57%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
82%

Chicago, IL by November 15
61%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
82%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
28%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
81%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
83%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
93%

Chicago, IL by November 30
79%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
20%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...A strengthening El Niño, now carrying greater than 90% odds of becoming a very strong event through fall and winter 2026-27 according to NOAA, stands as the dominant factor shaping early-season snow prospects. This pattern favors an active southern storm track with above-normal precipitation across the southern Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and parts of the central and eastern U.S., while suppressing snowfall farther north. High-elevation sites in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and the Cascades have already recorded initial accumulations in late August and early September, ahead of typical medians. Traders monitor upcoming NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates, ECMWF and UKMO seasonal model runs, and National Weather Service temperature and precipitation outlooks for shifts that could advance or delay the first measurable snowfall at resolution stations. Historical analogs from strong El Niño winters show variable first-snow timing depending on elevation and latitude.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว


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