**Incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional District under the state’s majority-vote system primary on November 3, 2026.** The solidly Republican district (rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters) features Scalise alongside Republican challenger Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Scalise’s prior general-election performance exceeding 66% and the absence of significant primary challengers or recent events that could fragment the Republican vote support the strong trader consensus that one candidate will clear 50% and avoid a December 12 runoff. The implied probability reflects the district’s consistent partisan lean and the low likelihood of vote splitting sufficient to force a second round.