Republican incumbent Brian Jack faces Democrat Maura Keller in Georgia’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026, with a potential runoff on December 1 if no candidate reaches a majority. The district’s R+15 partisan lean and Jack’s unopposed primary advance support trader expectations of an outright winner, as Republican candidates have historically cleared 50 percent comfortably in this area. No major late-cycle developments, polling shifts, or candidate controversies have emerged to alter the baseline. Georgia’s majority-vote rule for House races means the 61.6 percent implied probability on a first-round victory reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing the low likelihood of a sufficiently competitive outcome to force a December contest.