Escalating US-Iran hostilities in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil-export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, with over 550 reported strikes during earlier phases of conflict yet no loss of Iranian operational control. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and related maritime restrictions sharply curtailed loadings—exports fell from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000 in August—pushing Brent crude prices toward $97–$100 amid supply-risk premiums. Recent Iranian statements on new exclusion zones and missile warnings, alongside resumed partial loadings at Kharg’s western terminal, underscore Tehran’s efforts to maintain export capacity despite infrastructure damage. Trader sentiment on these islands remaining under Iranian control reflects the high military and logistical barriers to seizure, tempered by ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks and potential catalysts from FOMC-driven rate paths or further Gulf developments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$136,381 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$136,381 ปริมาณ
September 30
$83,605 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran hostilities in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil-export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, with over 550 reported strikes during earlier phases of conflict yet no loss of Iranian operational control. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and related maritime restrictions sharply curtailed loadings—exports fell from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000 in August—pushing Brent crude prices toward $97–$100 amid supply-risk premiums. Recent Iranian statements on new exclusion zones and missile warnings, alongside resumed partial loadings at Kharg’s western terminal, underscore Tehran’s efforts to maintain export capacity despite infrastructure damage. Trader sentiment on these islands remaining under Iranian control reflects the high military and logistical barriers to seizure, tempered by ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks and potential catalysts from FOMC-driven rate paths or further Gulf developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$136,381วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran hostilities in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil-export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, with over 550 reported strikes during earlier phases of conflict yet no loss of Iranian operational control. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and related maritime restrictions sharply curtailed loadings—exports fell from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000 in August—pushing Brent crude prices toward $97–$100 amid supply-risk premiums. Recent Iranian statements on new exclusion zones and missile warnings, alongside resumed partial loadings at Kharg’s western terminal, underscore Tehran’s efforts to maintain export capacity despite infrastructure damage. Trader sentiment on these islands remaining under Iranian control reflects the high military and logistical barriers to seizure, tempered by ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks and potential catalysts from FOMC-driven rate paths or further Gulf developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$136,381วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran hostilities in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil-export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, with over 550 reported strikes during earlier phases of conflict yet no loss of Iranian operational control. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and related maritime restrictions sharply curtailed loadings—exports fell from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000 in August—pushing Brent crude prices toward $97–$100 amid supply-risk premiums. Recent Iranian statements on new exclusion zones and missile warnings, alongside resumed partial loadings at Kharg’s western terminal, underscore Tehran’s efforts to maintain export capacity despite infrastructure damage. Trader sentiment on these islands remaining under Iranian control reflects the high military and logistical barriers to seizure, tempered by ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks and potential catalysts from FOMC-driven rate paths or further Gulf developments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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