One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarrer By-Election Winner
Farrer By-Election Winner
David Farley 100.0%
Rebecca Scriven <1%
Raissa Butkowski <1%
Michelle Milthorpe <1%
$499,060 ปริมาณ
$499,060 ปริมาณ
Rebecca Scriven
No
Raissa Butkowski
No
Michelle Milthorpe
No
Helen Dalton
No
David Farley
Yes
David Farley 100.0%
Rebecca Scriven <1%
Raissa Butkowski <1%
Michelle Milthorpe <1%
$499,060 ปริมาณ
$499,060 ปริมาณ
Rebecca Scriven
No
Raissa Butkowski
No
Michelle Milthorpe
No
Helen Dalton
No
David Farley
Yes
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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