Trader consensus in the Farrer by-election, set for May 9, positions independent Michelle Milthorpe as a narrow favorite over One Nation's David Farley, reflecting persistent regional voter frustration with the Liberal Party after Sussan Ley's February resignation amid a leadership spill. A March poll showed One Nation leading primaries at 28.7% and Milthorpe at 23.3%, well ahead of Liberal Raissa Butkowski (19.1%) and Nationals (5.2%), with Labor absent to consolidate anti-Coalition preferences toward Milthorpe, who reached 43.8% two-candidate preferred in 2025. Recent April 17 ballot draw boosted Liberal visibility atop the paper and placed Milthorpe second, while Farley's resurfaced controversial comments have fueled preference snubs from Family First. Early voting begins April 28, ahead of a key candidates' debate on April 30.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarrer By-Election Winner
Farrer By-Election Winner
Michelle Milthorpe 54%
David Farley 44%
Raissa Butkowski 5.0%
Rebecca Scriven <1%
$139,946 ปริมาณ
$139,946 ปริมาณ
Michelle Milthorpe
54%
David Farley
44%
Raissa Butkowski
5%
Rebecca Scriven
1%
Helen Dalton
1%
Michelle Milthorpe 54%
David Farley 44%
Raissa Butkowski 5.0%
Rebecca Scriven <1%
$139,946 ปริมาณ
$139,946 ปริมาณ
Michelle Milthorpe
54%
David Farley
44%
Raissa Butkowski
5%
Rebecca Scriven
1%
Helen Dalton
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Farrer by-election, set for May 9, positions independent Michelle Milthorpe as a narrow favorite over One Nation's David Farley, reflecting persistent regional voter frustration with the Liberal Party after Sussan Ley's February resignation amid a leadership spill. A March poll showed One Nation leading primaries at 28.7% and Milthorpe at 23.3%, well ahead of Liberal Raissa Butkowski (19.1%) and Nationals (5.2%), with Labor absent to consolidate anti-Coalition preferences toward Milthorpe, who reached 43.8% two-candidate preferred in 2025. Recent April 17 ballot draw boosted Liberal visibility atop the paper and placed Milthorpe second, while Farley's resurfaced controversial comments have fueled preference snubs from Family First. Early voting begins April 28, ahead of a key candidates' debate on April 30.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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