**No charges were filed against former Representative Eric Swalwell by the September 30 deadline, producing near-certain trader consensus on the “No” outcome.** Multiple federal and state investigations remain active, including an FBI civil-rights probe that executed search warrants for electronic devices in mid-August 2026 tied to sexual-misconduct allegations, separate Manhattan and Los Angeles district-attorney inquiries, and a November 2025 criminal referral on mortgage-fraud claims later challenged in court. These steps reflect ongoing evidence gathering rather than completed prosecutorial decisions, consistent with the typical pace of complex public-corruption or civil-rights cases. No indictments or charging documents appeared in federal dockets before the cutoff. While late-breaking developments such as an unsealed complaint or sudden plea agreement could theoretically shift outcomes in similar matters, the absence of any public filing by the resolution date underpins the market’s 100 percent implied probability.