The overwhelming consensus behind the 94.9% "No" odds stems from consistent reporting that The Elder Scrolls VI remains years from completion, with Bloomberg's Jason Schreier and other insiders pegging a realistic launch no earlier than 2028. Bethesda Game Studios has confirmed the project is in full production on Creation Engine 3 with the majority of the team focused on it, yet Xbox executives have tied any major reveal to a credible release window that has not materialized. Recent layoffs at the studio in July 2026 reportedly left the core timeline intact, but the absence of gameplay footage or official dates since the 2018 teaser reinforces trader skepticism. A surprise 2026 release would require an unprecedented acceleration of development and marketing, which historical patterns for Bethesda's flagship RPGs make highly improbable before the holiday window closes.