Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target at 2.6% in March amid surging energy prices from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB Governing Council held key rates steady at its March 19 meeting, raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates, signaling vigilance against upside risks rather than easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for hikes if pressures endure, even short-lived, while economists and markets now price potential increases as soon as April 30 or June. Absent de-escalation or demand weakness, this hawkish stance amid steady growth underpins bets on no cuts this year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
$25,143 ปริมาณ
$25,143 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$25,143 ปริมาณ
$25,143 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target at 2.6% in March amid surging energy prices from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB Governing Council held key rates steady at its March 19 meeting, raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates, signaling vigilance against upside risks rather than easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for hikes if pressures endure, even short-lived, while economists and markets now price potential increases as soon as April 30 or June. Absent de-escalation or demand weakness, this hawkish stance amid steady growth underpins bets on no cuts this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,143วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target at 2.6% in March amid surging energy prices from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB Governing Council held key rates steady at its March 19 meeting, raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates, signaling vigilance against upside risks rather than easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for hikes if pressures endure, even short-lived, while economists and markets now price potential increases as soon as April 30 or June. Absent de-escalation or demand weakness, this hawkish stance amid steady growth underpins bets on no cuts this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,143วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target at 2.6% in March amid surging energy prices from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB Governing Council held key rates steady at its March 19 meeting, raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates, signaling vigilance against upside risks rather than easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for hikes if pressures endure, even short-lived, while economists and markets now price potential increases as soon as April 30 or June. Absent de-escalation or demand weakness, this hawkish stance amid steady growth underpins bets on no cuts this year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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