Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarage 70–80% 42.4%
Farage 60–70% 36%
Farage 80%+ 13%
Farage 50–60% 7%
$152,291 ปริมาณ
$152,291 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
2%
Farage 40–50%
2%
Farage 50–60%
7%
Farage 60–70%
36%
Farage 70–80%
42%
Farage 80%+
13%
Farage 70–80% 42.4%
Farage 60–70% 36%
Farage 80%+ 13%
Farage 50–60% 7%
$152,291 ปริมาณ
$152,291 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
$14,224 ปริมาณ
2%
Farage 40–50%
$15,766 ปริมาณ
2%
Farage 50–60%
$18,495 ปริมาณ
7%
Farage 60–70%
$25,320 ปริมาณ
36%
Farage 70–80%
$40,794 ปริมาณ
42%
Farage 80%+
$37,693 ปริมาณ
13%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$152,291วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$152,291วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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