Elevated August inflation at 6.24% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024 and well above the 3% target, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the Banco de la República’s September 30 policy decision. With the benchmark rate already at a restrictive 12% following the June hike and July hold, recent analyst surveys point to end-2026 inflation near 6.5-6.6%, limiting scope for cuts while supporting a cautious stance amid robust domestic demand and labor cost pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change leading at 47.5% and modest hikes at 28.2% and 19.4%, underscoring the wisdom of crowds pricing in inflation persistence over easing. The September 30 meeting and any fresh September CPI or labor data will serve as the next key catalysts shaping rate-path probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCentral Bank of Colombia decision in September
Central Bank of Colombia decision in September
No change 48%
50+ bps increase 28.2%
25 bps increase 19.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
$42,187 ปริมาณ
$42,187 ปริมาณ
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
48%
25 bps increase
19%
50+ bps increase
28%
No change 48%
50+ bps increase 28.2%
25 bps increase 19.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
$42,187 ปริมาณ
$42,187 ปริมาณ
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,826 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,401 ปริมาณ
1%
No change
$15,044 ปริมาณ
48%
25 bps increase
$14,408 ปริมาณ
19%
50+ bps increase
$7,508 ปริมาณ
28%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated August inflation at 6.24% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024 and well above the 3% target, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the Banco de la República’s September 30 policy decision. With the benchmark rate already at a restrictive 12% following the June hike and July hold, recent analyst surveys point to end-2026 inflation near 6.5-6.6%, limiting scope for cuts while supporting a cautious stance amid robust domestic demand and labor cost pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change leading at 47.5% and modest hikes at 28.2% and 19.4%, underscoring the wisdom of crowds pricing in inflation persistence over easing. The September 30 meeting and any fresh September CPI or labor data will serve as the next key catalysts shaping rate-path probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,187วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated August inflation at 6.24% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024 and well above the 3% target, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the Banco de la República’s September 30 policy decision. With the benchmark rate already at a restrictive 12% following the June hike and July hold, recent analyst surveys point to end-2026 inflation near 6.5-6.6%, limiting scope for cuts while supporting a cautious stance amid robust domestic demand and labor cost pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change leading at 47.5% and modest hikes at 28.2% and 19.4%, underscoring the wisdom of crowds pricing in inflation persistence over easing. The September 30 meeting and any fresh September CPI or labor data will serve as the next key catalysts shaping rate-path probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,187วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August inflation at 6.24% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024 and well above the 3% target, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the Banco de la República’s September 30 policy decision. With the benchmark rate already at a restrictive 12% following the June hike and July hold, recent analyst surveys point to end-2026 inflation near 6.5-6.6%, limiting scope for cuts while supporting a cautious stance amid robust domestic demand and labor cost pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change leading at 47.5% and modest hikes at 28.2% and 19.4%, underscoring the wisdom of crowds pricing in inflation persistence over easing. The September 30 meeting and any fresh September CPI or labor data will serve as the next key catalysts shaping rate-path probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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