Recent inflation data, including August’s 6.24% year-over-year print and rising core measures, alongside the Banco de la República’s unexpected 25-basis-point hike to 12.25% on September 30, anchor trader sentiment for the October 30 decision. The divided board—four members favoring the increase, two preferring a hold, and one seeking 50 basis points—highlighted concerns over unanchored expectations and external risks such as El Niño and oil prices, even as activity indicators softened. With market-implied odds nearly even between no change (45.5%) and a further 25-basis-point rise (38.0%), incoming September CPI, labor data, and any pre-meeting communications will likely determine whether the restrictive stance pauses or extends.